Thursday, December 15, 2011

Korea's Demographic Imperative: Implications for Education Sector

I recently read a couple of articles in the mainstream press that addressed Korea's aging society.  The first of these, in the Joongang Daily, gave the latest revised population projections from Statistics Korea.  As noted in the article, the projected peak population of South Korea has been pushed back to 2030 because of recent increases in the birth rate.   However, as the accompanying bar chart graphic shows, the nation still faces substantial decreases in the so-called "economically active population," aged 15-64 in coming years.  This age cohort also happens to include college and university students.
As another earlier article in the Chosun Ilbo noted, South Korea's universities and its Ministry of Education, Science and Technology are bracing for a dwindling number of students. It reported that some universities could face closure due by 2018 to a dearth of students, because the number of high school graduates will decline by around 52,000 from the 580,000 students currently enrolled in universities and two-year colleges. With the university entrance rate at 80 percent among high school graduates, that boils down to around 420,000 students. If these students fill up the 350,000 slots at four-year universities, there are only 70,000 left for two-year colleges, which have up to 220,000 places to fill. If the trend continues, 90 colleges are forecast to close down by 2030, according to the Korean Educational Development Institute.

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